2010/2011 Winter Forecast
Philadelphia/South Jersey to Washington, DC
Time Period: December 1st, 2010 to March 1st, 2010
Issued November 13th, 2010
The forecast will entail an overview of the upcoming season, total seasonal snowfall and first snowfall prediction, and a month by month analysis of what to expect. For a more detailed analysis, please see the Technical Discussion.
We will see above average temperatures for much of the winter. Will not be surprised if we get a few 60 degree days, especially in January. January will be the warmest and least snowy month of the season. The coldest/snowiest month with be February.
Any snowstorms will be small/nuiscance events(4" or less). **Highly confident there will not be any big snowstorms**. For any wintry events, there is an increased risk for ice-storms. Expect a progressive type pattern for much of the winter, with frequent short warm/cold spells.
Since we'll have a western storm track, it will warm up ahead of storm systems and get cold behind them. Again the duration will not be long in both cases. Seasons for comparison for the upcoming winter are 1973/1974 and 1998/1999.
While confidence is high with below normal snowfall, there are some indications that this could be a very cold winter, matching the season of 1917-1918(see discussion). Two factors really stand out that are similar, that being the current extreme high values of the Southern Oscillation Index
and the projection of minimal sunspot activity). That season saw severe cold in December and Jauary for much of the eastern US. A bit of a longshot, but worth watching
and if it verifies, the temperature forcast will bust big time.
Philadelphia/South Jersey
Total Seasonal Snowfall: 11-13 inches; Seasonal Average: 19.3"
First Snowfall: Sometime between December 13th and 18th
Month by Month Analysis
December
- Mainly warm overall with a few cold spells. Coldest period will be from 11th to 20th. Warm 1st to 10th and 21st to 31st.
- One snow/ice event around mid-month
- Temperatures 1-2 degrees above average
- Precipitation around average
January
- Warmest month of the season.
- Temperatures above noraml(2 derees or higher)
- One ice event in the middle of the month.
- Precipitation below average
February
- Will be the coldest month of season
- Temperatures 1-2 degrees below average
- 1-2 snow/ice events; timetable for those events will be Feb. 15th to 28th
- Precipitation above average
Washington, D.C and Surrounding Suburbs
Total Seasonal Snowfall(Areas within the Beltway and 20 miles away from that in all quadrants: 8-11 inches; Seasonal Average: 17 inches
First Snowfall: Sometime between December 13th and 18th.
Month by Month Analysis
December
- Mainly warm overall with a few cold spells. Coldest period will be from 11th to 20th. Warm 1st to 10th and 21st to 31st.
- One snow/ice event around mid-month
- Temperatures 1-3 degrees above average
- Precipitation around average
January
- Warmest Month of the season
- Temperatures well above normal(Greater than 3 degeres above average)
- One ice event around the middle of the month.
- Precipitation below average
February
- Will be the coldest month of the season
- Temperatures 1-2 degrees below average
- 1-2 snow/ice events; timetable for those events will be Feb. 15th to 28th
- Precipitation above average